TQQQ - BIL Strategy Tracker

What is this strategy?

The TQQQ–BIL strategy is a rules-based, systematic approach that pairs a 3× leveraged Nasdaq ETF (TQQQ) with a short-term treasury ETF (BIL) as a defensive cash reserve. Instead of buy-and-hold, the portfolio is rebalanced on a fixed schedule using a growth target — capturing gains when markets run and buying more when they fall.

Set a growth target Choose how much you expect TQQQ to grow each period (e.g. 9% per quarter). This becomes your rebalance anchor — not a prediction, but a disciplined trigger.

Rebalance on schedule At each rebalance date (monthly, quarterly, or annually), compare TQQQ's current value to the target. Only act if the deviation exceeds the tolerance threshold.

Sell high into BIL If TQQQ is above target — it outran expectations. Sell the surplus TQQQ and park proceeds in BIL. Lock in gains, rebuild your reserve.

Buy low from BIL If TQQQ is below target — it lagged. Deploy BIL reserves to buy discounted TQQQ. Systematically average down without emotion.

Reset the target After each rebalance, the new target is set to the post-trade TQQQ value multiplied by the growth rate. The process repeats next period.

Risk notice: TQQQ is a 3× leveraged ETF that resets daily. It can lose 90%+ of its value in a severe or prolonged downturn. This strategy does not guarantee profits. Past backtest results do not predict future performance. Only invest capital you can afford to lose entirely.

Strategy configuration

Target growth per period (%)

Rebalance frequency

Starting capital ($)

Initial TQQQ allocation (%)

Start date

Commission + slippage (%)

Rebalance tolerance (%)

Cash flow — contributions & withdrawals

Amount per period ($)

Direction

Frequency

Cash goes into

Next rebalance signal

Portfolio vs. signal target vs. benchmarks (USD)

Drawdown from peak

Annual returns

Allocation over time

TQQQ % BIL %

Cumulative contributions vs. portfolio value

Monte Carlo — 10-year forward projection (2,000 paths)

What is this telling me?

We ran 2,000 imaginary versions of the next 10 years by replaying real historical daily return patterns in random order. Each "path" is one possible future. Together they show the full range — from lucky outcomes to unlucky ones — so you can see what this strategy might realistically do going forward.

Green line (median path) Half of all 2,000 futures ended above this line, half below. Think of it as the single most representative outcome — not a guarantee, just the middle of the range.

Blue bands (the shaded areas) The darker band shows where the middle 50% of futures landed. The lighter outer band covers 90% of all simulated futures. A wider band means more uncertainty.

Median CAGR The typical yearly growth rate across all simulations — like a compound interest rate. A 30% CAGR means your money roughly triples every ~4 years in the median scenario.

Risk of Ruin The % of futures where your portfolio fell below 50% of what you started with. This is the worst-case catastrophic loss risk — you should be comfortable with this number before investing.

Probability of Loss The % of futures where you ended 10 years with less money than you started. Even over a long horizon, some paths go negative — this tells you how often that happened.

Mean Max Drawdown On average across all futures, how far did the portfolio fall from its peak before recovering? For example, -60% means at some point you'd be watching your account drop by more than half. This is the emotional pain number.

⚠️ Important: This is based on historical patterns and does not predict the future. TQQQ is a 3× leveraged ETF — it can lose 90%+ of its value in a severe market crash. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Percentile fan chart — portfolio value (block-bootstrap, not assuming normality)

50th pct (median) 25th–75th pct band 5th–95th pct band

Stress tests — strategy performance during market crises

What is this telling me?

Unlike the Monte Carlo which simulates imaginary futures, stress tests look at what actually happened during real historical market crises. This strategy mechanically buys more TQQQ when prices drop, so crashes affect it differently than a buy-and-hold approach.

Return % How much the total portfolio gained or lost from the start to the end of that crisis window. A -39% return means if you had $100,000 at the start, you'd have about $61,000 at the end of that period.

Max Drawdown The worst single drop from a peak during that period — the lowest your account would have looked. This is deeper than the overall return because it captures the scariest moment before any recovery.

Days How many trading days the period covered. Shorter crashes (like COVID in 2020) recovered faster. Longer downturns (like 2022) dragged on and gave the strategy less opportunity to average down.

Why some periods are missing TQQQ only began trading in February 2010, so crises before that date (like the 2008 Financial Crisis) cannot be shown — there is no real TQQQ price data from that time.

💡 Tip: Large negative returns during crashes are expected with this strategy. The key is whether the strategy recovers — look at the Post-COVID Recovery row to see how dramatically the strategy can rebound after a crash.

Return % per crisis period

Stress period detail

Period	Return	Max DD	Days

Date	Action	TQQQ px	BIL px	Pre TQQQ	Target	Deviation	Trade $	Post total	New target	TQQQ %	BIL %

Date	Type	Amount	Into	Before	After	TQQQ %	BIL %

Metric	TQQQ-BIL	QQQ	SPY

Year	Inflation	TQQQ-BIL Strategy		QQQ		SPY
Year	Inflation	Return	Balance	Return	Balance	Return	Balance